Stat, Viz, Quiz 190: Who Will Win the UEFA Champions League?

The biggest competition in European club football is back. It only feels like a short time ago that Paris Saint-Germain were lifting a second consecutive UEFA Champions League trophy, and here we are again ready for another round.

The league phase gets under way this week, with 18 games across Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. In this week’s SVQ, we’ll tell you who the Opta supercomputer thinks is likeliest to win it all in Madrid in June.

Arsenal fans might still feel a little sore about the way last season’s UCL ended, but they have every reason to be cheerful at the start their team has made to the new campaign. Mikel Arteta’s defending Premier League champions came from behind to beat London rivals Chelsea on Sunday, and we’ll show you why one of their goals in that game was especially noteworthy.

You know the rest by now. Quiz, Ask Opta question, and a general theme of merriment that will hopefully brighten your Tuesday to the point of a smile, or even a little bit of gentle applause.

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The excitement starts with the draw really, doesn’t it?

It may not be quite as dramatic as it used to be, with games decided by a gigantic all-powerful button now rather than the old way of watching football icons struggle to open capsules that look like they came from inside a Kinder Surprise (other egg-shaped confectionary is available).

Now that we know who is playing whom, not only can we look forward to some mouthwatering matches, but we can also start to predict how things may go over the next nine months.

Will PSG win it for a third season in a row? Can Arsenal go one better than last time? Will we get a surprise package?

We can all speculate, but we can also use our trusty Opta supercomputer to run some simulations for us and get some data-backed projections. You can read more about them on the Opta Analyst site here.

Interestingly, Bayern Munich are the favourites to finish top of the 36-team league phase. Vincent Kompany’s men were eliminated by PSG last season in an absolute classic of a semi-final tie, and will be eager to win their first Champions League since 2020. However, despite winning the league phase in 19.4% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations, Bayern are only second favourites to win the whole thing (also 19.4%).

As things stand, Arsenal head into the league phase as the team fancied to win the trophy. The Gunners avenged last season’s final by lifting their first ever European Cup/Champions League in 20.9% of sims.

Perhaps you will be surprised to learn that despite their dominance of this competition in the last two years, PSG are only fifth favourites to make it a hat-trick. Real Madrid are the only team to win three in a row in the Champions League era (2016, 2017 and 2018) but Luis Enrique’s side did so in 7.1% of simulations.

Manchester City (12.3%) and Barcelona (8.2%) both won it more often than the reigning champions, though, who may have had their chances impacted by their poor start to the season domestically. PSG have won just two points from their first three Ligue 1 games, and were beaten 2-1 at home by Monaco on Friday.

One team who did win on Friday was Liverpool, and they lifted the Champions League in 6.1% of sims, ahead of Real Madrid (4.4%), Manchester United (3.8%), Inter (3.7%) and Aston Villa (2.0%).

Of all 36 competing teams, there were just two who didn’t win the Champions League in any of the 10,000 simulations. Even new boys Sabah FK won it twice.

However, Shakhtar Donetsk and Slovan Bratislava were unable to lift the trophy even once. There’s always next season, lads.

When Arsenal fell behind to Chelsea in just the second minute on Sunday, it looked as though the champions might be vulnerable for the first time in a long time.

It was the first goal they had conceded this season, and was the first time the Gunners had conceded inside the opening two minutes of a Premier League match since a game against Fulham in August 2023 (57 seconds). On that day, they were forced to settle for a 2-2 draw. Not this time.

Arsenal showed that steely resilience and superiority that saw them win Premier League title last season, turning things around and ultimately winning 2-1 to hand Xabi Alonso his first defeat as Chelsea boss.

Last season’s heroics were largely defined by Arsenal’s prowess from set-pieces, but they have started this campaign showing they can do it in open play as well. In fact, all six of their goals in their first three games have come from open play, including a special one at the Emirates on Sunday.

Former Chelsea man Kai Havertz placed an excellent shot inside the near post to bring the hosts level in the 25th minute, and it came after a move in which every single Arsenal player touched the ball.

It was the first goal in the Premier League this season in which all 11 players have had a touch in the build-up.

There were only three Premier League goals scored last season in which every player was involved in the build-up. Rio Ngumoha’s dramatic late winner for Liverpool at Newcastle, Dominic Calvert-Lewin for Leeds at Sunderland, and Junior Kroupi’s strike for Bournemouth against Manchester City that played such a big part in winning the title for Arsenal.

Havertz’s goal was the first of this type scored by Arsenal in the league since February 2024 vs West Ham, which Bukayo Saka scored after each of his teammates had touched the ball.

However, it was not the goal with the most passes in the sequence leading to the ball heading into the net this season. Liverpool’s second equaliser against Nottingham Forest on Matchday 2 saw 24 passes before Victor Muñoz eventually slammed the ball in at the Kop end. There were just 14 passes leading to Havertz’s goal against Chelsea, with five other goals in the English top flight this season having more.

Keep this up, and Arsenal may yet become synonymous with liquid football, although knowing how certain football opinions often go, perhaps it’s likelier they’ll just be criticised for ‘relying’ on open-play goals.

1. Liverpool’s 2-0 win at Ipswich means they have already equalled their total of one away win in the Premier League by a margin of 2+ goals from last season. Which team did they beat on the road 2-0 in November 2025?

2. After their 2-2 draw at Newcastle on Sunday, since the start of last season, Bournemouth have dropped the joint-most points from winning positions in the Premier League (29), level with who?

3. Brighton’s Pascal Groß became just the fourth German player to reach 250 Premier League appearances. Name any of the other three.

4. Ainsley Maitland-Niles’ dramatic late equaliser on his Everton debut vs Man Utd was just his second goal in 110 Premier League appearances, and first since December 2018 for Arsenal versus who?

5. Martin Ødegaard has already scored three goals for Arsenal in all competitions this season. How many did he score for the Gunners last season?

Our latest question is from Silvestar Bistrović, who asks: “The current champions have successfully started their campaign in England, but in France, the champions are without a win after three rounds. What's the best and what's the worst start champions have had?”

Do you have a stat-based question you’d like Opta to answer in a future edition of SVQ? Email us at [email protected] or message us on X @OptaAnalyst with #AskOpta and we’ll pick the best one.

Answer:

It has indeed been a perfect start for Arsenal, and a less-than perfect one for PSG. The Gunners have three wins from three, while the French champions have drawn two and lost one.

To answer this question, though, we’ll look specifically at Premier League champions, otherwise we’ll be here for a while.

When considering the best start to a Premier League campaign as being a winning streak, Chelsea in 2005-06 very much stand out. José Mourinho’s Blues won their first nine games that season having eased to the title the season prior. They scored 23 times and remarkably conceded just three, getting a maximum 27 points and ultimately, successfully defending their crown.

No other defending champion has begun with more than six wins (Man City in 2023-24).

As for the worst start by a reigning Premier League champion (in terms of most games played before winning), that was Manchester United in 2007-08, who didn’t win any of their first three games that season (D2 L1). However, it didn’t matter as they went on to retain their title anyway.

The only other defending PL champions to not win either of their first two games of the following campaign were Chelsea in 2015-16 (D1 L1) and Leicester City in 2016-17 (D1 L1).

Here's some of the latest data-driven offerings you can find on our website:

1. Liverpool’s 2-0 win at Ipswich means they have already equalled their total of one away win in the Premier League by a margin of 2+ goals from last season. Which team did they beat on the road 2-0 in November 2025?

West Ham

2. After their 2-2 draw at Newcastle on Sunday, since the start of last season, Bournemouth have dropped the joint-most points from winning positions in the Premier League (29), level with who?

Newcastle

3. Brighton’s Pascal Groß became just the fourth German player to reach 250 Premier League appearances. Name any of the other three.

Robert Huth (322), Dietmar Hamann (268) and Bernd Leno (254)

4. Ainsley Maitland-Niles’ dramatic late equaliser on his Everton debut vs Man Utd was just his second goal in 110 Premier League appearances, and first since December 2018 for Arsenal versus who?

Liverpool

5. Martin Ødegaard has already scored three goals for Arsenal in all competitions this season. How many did he score for the Gunners last season?

One

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Until next time,
Opta Analyst