Stat, Viz, Quiz 144: The Premier League Title Race Hots Up

Should City win at Burnley on Wednesday, they will go top of the table for the first time since 21 August 2025. There’s still plenty of time for Arsenal to get back on track, but losing top spot at just the wrong time would be an all-too familiar feeling for the Gunners, which we’ll look at in this week’s SVQ.

Speaking of late setbacks, Everton could really have done without conceding a late winner in the first Merseyside derby at their new Hill Dickinson Stadium. It was a notable goal from Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk for more reasons than bragging rights, though, which we’ll also dive into.

Coventry City will be back in the Premier League for the first time in 25 years after they earned promotion on Friday, but because misfortune is apparently more interesting, our Ask Opta question this week is about the other end of the Championship table and the possible relegation of Leicester City.

We also have another five head-scratching trivia questions for you, but let’s get right into it with one of the most interesting Premier League title races for years.

All eyes were on the Etihad Stadium on Sunday. Manchester City vs Arsenal felt massive.

An Arsenal win, and surely the title race was over. Even a draw would have given the Gunners a huge advantage despite City’s game in hand.

It was Pep Guardiola’s men who took the spoils, though, beating Arsenal 2-1 thanks to goals from Rayan Cherki and Erling Haaland.

It was a good effort from Mikel Arteta’s side, but they were unable to stop the pendulum from swinging further in City’s favour. Man City now sit three points behind with a game in hand.

It must be stressed that Arsenal are still top of the Premier League, and have been for the majority of the season. As of today, they have sat in first place for 208 days in 2025-26. By comparison, City have only been top for six days, and not since August. It would therefore be quite the kick in the pants for Arteta’s men to lose it from here.

That’s been a bit of a common theme for the Gunners, though; being top until it really matters.

Since Arteta was appointed in December 2019, Arsenal have spent more days top of the Premier League (539) than Man City (453) but have not yet won the title. City have won four in that time and could make it five next month.

Liverpool have been top for the most days since Arteta’s appointment (620), though it must be pointed out that 96 of those days came during the break at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Taking those out, Arsenal have been top for more days than any other team in that time.

For what it’s worth, the Opta supercomputer still makes Arsenal favourites. Due to them having a seemingly ‘easier’ run-in as well as them still being higher in the Opta Power Rankings than City, the supercomputer gives them a 72% chance of winning their first title since 2004.

However, its calculations do not consider nerves, momentum, or the concept of ‘bottling’ it.

We’ll have to wait and see, but things are set up very nicely indeed for the neutral at the very least.

It has largely been a season to forget for Liverpool. They are a long way off the title race, and after last week’s defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League, the Reds are out of every cup competition too.

However, the ending to the 248th Merseyside derby will live long in the memory as Virgil van Dijk rose in the 100th minute to nod in a winner for Arne Slot’s men.

Despite going into the game as the form team of the two, Everton will probably say they could feel the inevitable coming as the game went into 11 minutes of stoppage time at 1-1. They’ve suffered plenty at the hands of their local rivals when it comes to late goals, and indeed, it happened again.

Van Dijk’s header was the six 90th-minute winner Liverpool have scored against Everton in the Premier League – the most one side has scored against a single opponent in the competition's history.

The dramatic moment came after a fairly even game at Hill Dickinson Stadium, hosting its first ever Merseyside derby, not that it’s one Everton fans will particularly want to remember.

Just a couple of minutes after Iliman Ndiaye had a goal ruled out at one end, Mohamed Salah put Liverpool in front at the other just before the half-hour mark, converting a superb pass from Cody Gakpo. In what was his final Merseyside derby before leaving Liverpool this summer, Salah equalled Steven Gerrard's nine goals to become the joint-top scoring player in this Premier League fixture.

Beto equalised for the hosts early in the second half, though, turning in Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s cross, and for a while it seemed like a draw would be the outcome as it was in the final Merseyside derby at Goodison Park last season. However, like that 2-2 draw, there was late drama to come.

At 99:53, Van Dijk scored the joint-third latest winning goal on record (from 2006-07) in a Premier League match, after Cole Palmer for Chelsea vs Man Utd in April 2024 (100:41) and Harvey Barnes for Newcastle vs Leeds in January this year (101:48).

It was Van Dijk’s 29th goal in the Premier League, now making him outright second in the competition for the most non-penalty goals by a defender, going past Gary Cahill (28) and sitting behind only John Terry (41).

The win leaves Liverpool in a strong position to qualify for the Champions League again next season, in fifth place and seven points clear of Chelsea in sixth ahead of the Blues’ trip to Brighton on Tuesday.

As for Everton, they are a part of an incredibly tight middle of the table, tussling to get a place in Europe for next season.

For more on that, you can read our piece on the race for Europe here.

1. On what was his 300th senior league appearance, Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored his 73rd goal on Saturday. Of those, 57 have come for Everton, 11 have been for Leeds United, but which current League One side did he score the other five for during a loan spell in the 2015-16 season?

2. Georginio Rutter’s equaliser for Brighton at Tottenham was the 11th scored by a substitute for the Seagulls this season in the Premier League. Who are the only other team to have scored 11 goals scored via subs in 2025-26?

3. Bruno Fernandes’ assist for Matheus Cunha at Chelsea was the Manchester United captain’s 18th in the Premier League this season. Who are the only three players to have recorded more in a single campaign in the competition?

4. Chris Rigg (18y 305d) became the third-youngest player to score for Sunderland in the Premier League. Name either of the players to have netted for the Black Cats at a younger age in the competition.

5. Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League games (W7 D3), their longest run without a league defeat of the season. Who was the last team to beat them in the league?

Scroll to the bottom for the answers.

This week’s question comes from Gareth J, who asks: “If Leicester City go down, will they be the first Premier League champions to play in League One?”

Do you have a stat-based question you’d like Opta to answer in a future edition of SVQ? Email us at [email protected] or message us on X @OptaAnalyst with #AskOpta and we’ll pick the best one.

Answer:

Things aren’t looking great for poor Leicester City.

Ten years ago, we all marvelled at their astonishing Premier League success. However, if the Foxes fail to beat Hull City on Tuesday, they will be relegated to League One, having been in the top flight as recently as last season.

Obviously, their six-point deduction for breaching profit and sustainability rules has been a factor, but it is a chastening time to be a Leicester fan. To answer your question Gareth, they would not be the first Premier League champions to subsequently find themselves in the third tier. Blackburn won the PL title in 1995 before being relegated to League One at the end of 2016-17. They stayed in the third tier just the one season, going back up to the Championship.

Of course, Manchester City did it the other way around. They were in the third tier in 1998-99, before going on to win the Premier League 13 years later.

Should Leicester go down, they will hope they can eventually bounce back like Leeds and Man City both did.

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Here's some of the latest data-driven offerings you can find on our website:

1. On what was his 300th senior league appearance, Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored his 73rd goal on Saturday. Of those, 57 have come for Everton, 11 have been for Leeds United, but which current League One side did he score the other five for during a loan spell in the 2015-16 season?

Northampton Town

2. Georginio Rutter’s equaliser for Brighton at Tottenham was the 11th scored by a substitute for the Seagulls this season in the Premier League. Who are the only other team to have 11 goals scored for them by subs in 2025-26?

Arsenal

3. Bruno Fernandes’ assist for Matheus Cunha at Chelsea was the Manchester United captain’s 18th in the Premier League this season. Who are the only three players to have recorded more in a single campaign in the competition?

Kevin De Bruyne in 2019-20 (20), Thierry Henry in 2002-03 (20) and Mesut Özil in 2015-16 (19)

4. Chris Rigg (18y 305d) became the third-youngest player to score for Sunderland in the Premier League. Name either of the players to have netted for the Black Cats at a younger age in the competition.

Michael Bridges (18y 117d in November 1996) and Connor Wickham (18y 212d in October 2011)

5. Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League games (W7 D3), their longest run without a league defeat of the season. Who was the last team to beat them in the league?

Manchester United on 17 January (2-0 at Old Trafford)

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Until next time,
Opta Analyst