Stat, Viz, Quiz 141: The Shortest Managerial Reign in Premier League History?

That's shorter than the length of time Liz Truss was UK Prime Minister, shorter than the average New Year's resolution before it gets quietly abandoned (there's always next year) and roughly the lifespan of a common housefly. Except the fly probably had a higher win percentage than the now-former Spurs boss.

We look at where those 43 days rank among the shortest permanent managerial reigns in Premier League history.

Elsewhere, we're analysing the best place to aim a World Cup penalty and digging through the biggest over and underperformers across Europe in our #AskOpta question of the week.

Let's dive in.

The numbers make grim reading for Igor Tudor. The Croatian was brought in to steady the ship following the sacking of Thomas Frank at Tottenham. Instead, he lasted just 43 days, failed to win a single league game and picked up a solitary point during his tenure.

Tudor is just the 13th permanent or interim manager to last fewer than 100 days in charge of a Premier League club since the competition began in 1992. Thankfully for him, he does not quite claim the accolade of the shortest reign in Premier League history.

That dubious honour belongs to Sam Allardyce, who lasted just 30 days at Leeds United after a failed rescue mission in Yorkshire during the dying embers of the 2022–23 season.

Ange Postecoglou, of course formerly of Tottenham, lasted just 39 days earlier this very season at Nottingham Forest.

Les Reed was appointed Charlton Athletic manager in November 2006 despite never having previously managed a professional team. Four points from seven Premier League games and an embarrassing League Cup exit at the hands of fourth-tier Wycombe Wanderers was enough for Charlton to part ways after just 40 days.

And then we get to Tudor: 43 days, the fourth-shortest Premier League tenure of all time among permanent or interim managers.

Of the 23 men to have managed at least two Premier League matches at Tottenham, Tudor is the only one not to record a single victory. Despite his time at Spurs lasting barely six weeks, the sacking still felt like it had been coming for a while.

His replacement will have a lot of issues to sort. And fast.

With the 2026 FIFA World Cup set to be the biggest edition of all time, featuring 48 teams across 104 matches, a penalty shootout is practically guaranteed.

There were five in the knockout stages in 2022, and this time around there are an additional 16 knockout fixtures courtesy of the round of 32. We might even see a shootout this week, with six World Cup play-off finals taking place.

But when it comes to that all-important decision of where to aim, what's the best bet?

Shootouts were introduced ahead of the 1978 World Cup as a tiebreaker, though the first one did not arrive until the 1982 edition. We’ve tracked the location of every single penalty attempted in a shootout since.

When it comes to conversion rates, the historic data tells us one thing: if you’re confident enough to do it, aim high. There have been 39 World Cup penalty shootout attempts fired into the top third of the goal and on target. Not one of them has been saved.

Aiming high obviously comes with risk and it is certainly the most high-risk, high-reward strategy. Get it wrong and you could cannon it into the crossbar, or blaze it over the bar. Just ask Roberto Baggio.

Fourteen penalties have hit the crossbar or sailed over it in World Cup shootouts since their introduction.

A few other details stand out from the conversion map. First is the sheer volume of penalties directed to the goalkeeper's right rather than the left, largely a product of the prevalence of right-footed takers.

But the conversion rate differs markedly depending on direction. Of the 74 spot-kicks placed into the far left-hand side of the goal from the taker's perspective, 66 have found the net (89.2%). That is considerably higher than the 38 out of 50 (76%) that have gone to the right-hand side.

1. The two inter-confederation play-off finals for the 2026 World Cup take place this week. Australia and Costa Rica made it through via this route for the 2022 tournament, but which teams did they beat in their respective play-off finals to get there?

2. Which player finished as top goalscorer in the UEFA World Cup qualifiers (excluding play-offs) for the 2026 World Cup?

3. Excluding the three host nations, which country were the first to qualify for the 2026 World Cup finals?

4. Just one nation in the CAF region (Africa) won every game in qualifying for the 2026 World Cup. Who were they?

5. New Zealand are the only nation from the OFC region to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Which Englishman, who made over 350 EFL appearances for Watford, Wolves and Walsall combined, is their head coach?

Scroll to the bottom for the answers.

Our question this week comes from Ben J, who asks: “Looking at expected points in 2025 26, which clubs across Europe are doing better and worse than their performances suggest?”

Do you have a stat-based question you’d like Opta to answer in a future edition of SVQ? Email us at [email protected] or message us on X @OptaAnalyst with #AskOpta and we’ll pick the best one.

Answer:

We’ll keep this specific to the top five European leagues in answering that question, Ben, and to do so we will compare expected points with real-life points across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga. 

For those that aren’t aware, our expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for each team in each match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.

This is of course not an exact science, as xG data doesn’t include a lot of factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it’s still a decent barometer for how teams are performing this season.

First of all, we’ll look at the clubs that have secured more points in the league this season than their performances at both ends of the pitch suggest that they should have…

Anyone who has been following Aston Villa’s 2025-26 campaign might not be too surprised to see they are top of the overperformance rankings.

Unai Emery’s team have won 54 points in the Premier League this season, but their expected points total is 38.6, giving them an overperformance of +15.4 points.

Much of that has come from their ability to score sensational goals from long range, with the Villans scoring 14 times from outside the box in league competition so far this campaign, three more than any other club in the top five European leagues.

A third of their goals (33%) have come from outside the box, which is by far the biggest proportion of any side within the top five European leagues, with Lecce and Bournemouth having the next highest proportion (24%).

Fiorentina have underachieved their expected points total by more than any other team in the top five European leagues this season.

Their 29-point total is 17.1 fewer than their expected points total of 46.1, with many of their problems coming in attack.

The Serie A club have scored 35 goals in 2025-26, but from an xG of 46.5 – only Crystal Palace (-12.8) and Rayo Vallecano (-11.8) have performed worse in front of goal.

Our Opta data hubs have detailed team and player stats, predictions, expected league tables and much more. Click/tap below to start your own data investigations.

Here's some of the latest data-driven offerings you can find on our website:

1. The two inter-confederation play-off finals for the 2026 World Cup take place this week. Australia and Costa Rica made it through via this route for the 2022 tournament, but which teams did they beat in their respective play-off finals to get there?

Peru (lost on penalties to Australia) and New Zealand (lost to Costa Rica)

2. Which player finished as top goalscorer in the UEFA World Cup qualifiers (excluding play-offs) for the 2026 World Cup?

Erling Haaland (16 goals for Norway)

3. Excluding the three host nations, which country were the first to qualify for the 2026 World Cup finals?

Japan qualified from the AFC region on 20 March 2025

4. Just one nation in the CAF region (Africa) won every game in qualifying for the 2026 World Cup. Who were they?

Morocco (won 8/8)

5. New Zealand are the only nation from the OFC region to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Which Englishman, who made over 350 EFL appearances for Watford, Wolves and Walsall combined, is their head coach?

Darren Bazeley

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Opta Analyst