Stat, Viz, Quiz 140: Could Tottenham Really Go Down?

Pep Guardiola’s side beat Arsenal 2-0 at Wembley on Sunday, lifting their ninth League Cup, and their seventh in the last 13 seasons. A pair of goals from Nico O’Reilly did the job, and ended the Gunners’ quadruple hopes.

While it seems likely that Arsenal will win something this season, with a nine-point lead in the Premier League and in the last eight of both the Champions League and FA Cup, they remain without a trophy since 2020. But when did each Premier League club last win a trophy? In this week’s SVQ, we reveal all.

One thing that may have cheered Arsenal fans up on Sunday was seeing rivals Tottenham losing 3-0 at home to fellow relegation candidates Nottingham Forest, leaving them looking even more vulnerable to possibly going down. It should be unthinkable for a club of Spurs’ size, but we look at the likelihood of it happening.

Our Ask Opta question is about goal involvements in 2026, and of course there is our weekly quiz to tackle.

Now, let’s give you some footy fodder for the pub/your WhatsApp groups.

Manchester City are the first English club to pick up major silverware in 2025-26 following their success in the League Cup.

That victory saw Pep Guardiola break a record, winning his fifth League Cup as a manager and overtaking Brian Clough, Alex Ferguson and José Mourinho (all on four wins) in the all-time rankings.

City had gone 21 months without a major trophy (poor them) before Sunday’s EFL Cup final victory over Arsenal at Wembley Stadium, but how does that compare to the other 19 current Premier League clubs?

A record five Premier League clubs won a major trophy last season. Liverpool won the Premier League title, Newcastle scooped up the League Cup, Crystal Palace sensationally won the FA Cup, and Tottenham won the UEFA Europa League. Chelsea went the extra mile, winning two major honours in 2025-26 with UEFA Conference League glory followed by the FIFA Club World Cup in the United States in July.

Arsenal’s defeat to City in Sunday’s League Cup final stopped them from winning their first major trophy in just over five and a half years – the 2019-20 FA Cup. They have waited longer for a title in any major competition than eight other clubs.

Sixteen current Premier League clubs have won a major trophy before, but seven of them have not done so in this century. Of those sides, Leeds United are the only one still in the FA Cup, while Aston Villa are setting their sights on UEFA Europa League glory at the end of the season.

They are the current Opta supercomputer favourites to do just that (30.7%), while manager Unai Emery has won the competition a record four times previously.

Nottingham Forest’s last major trophy was the League Cup in 1990, but they famously won back-to-back European Cups in 1979 and 1980. They are in the Europa League quarter-finals this season, so still have a chance of glory for the first time in 36 years, but they must overcome FC Porto in the next round to stand any chance of doing that.

The wait for a major trophy will go on for Everton, Leeds, Wolves, Sunderland and Burnley, but at least they have enjoyed success in the past.

Four current Premier League clubs have never won a major honour – no, second-tier league titles and play-off glory doesn’t count here – and that won’t change in 2025-26 for Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton or Fulham as they can’t win the Premier League and are all out of the FA Cup.

They are all in with a great chance of qualifying for Europe, though, giving them an extra chance of possibly securing silverware next season.

Get the open-top bus booked now, just in case.

It’s the hope that kills you.

Last week’s draw at Liverpool and win over Atlético Madrid seemed to suggest that the fight had returned to Tottenham, and that their flirtation with relegation might be about to end.

A six-pointer at home to Nottingham Forest provided the perfect opportunity to prove that Spurs would have too much to go down, especially against an opponent who had to play extra-time away from home in Europe just three days earlier.

However, Tottenham fans probably could have guessed what was coming next. It has been the story of their season. Just as a corner looks like being turned, they realise they’re back to where they were before. It’s a bit like The Blair Witch Project, but scarier if you support Spurs.

Forest ran out 3-0 victors in north London, not just winning but doing so with relative ease.

Fortunately for Spurs, West Ham also lost at Aston Villa, so they have not yet dropped into the bottom three. They remain a point ahead of the Hammers, but now two behind Forest and three behind Leeds United.

But with seven games remaining, could we really see Tottenham Hotspur relegated to the Championship?

According to the Opta supercomputer, it is still unlikely. West Ham are favourites to join Burnley and Wolves in going down, doing so in 58.2% of 10,000 season simulations.

Spurs only succumb to relegation in 26.5%, but that has gone up a fair bit after Sunday’s dreadful result. Moments before kick-off at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, their chance of relegation was 12.8% with the supercomputer.

It is also likely that the supercomputer is giving Spurs extra credit because of their Champions League exploits. Reaching the last 16 and beating Atlético in the second leg – even though they went out on aggregate – meant Tottenham gained points in the Opta Power Rankings, which the supercomputer uses partly to make its calculations. Whether you agree that their better European performances are relevant to forecasting their league form is up to you.

Spurs are now much likelier to go down than Forest (8.5%) and Leeds (6.9%), who drew at home to Brentford on Saturday.

Tottenham’s remaining games are against Sunderland (A), Brighton (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds (H), Chelsea (A) and Everton (H). Then again, given two of their three points won in the league in 2026 were against Man City and Liverpool, maybe the strength of their opponent doesn’t matter much.

Spurs had a miserable 2024-25 season as well, until the very end when it finished with smiles on faces. This time, it could still end with smiles, but they’ll likely be more of relief than joy.

It promises to be a fascinating run-in, even if nerves will be jangling in both north and east London.

1. After their 2-2 draw with Manchester United on Friday, Bournemouth’s unbeaten run in the Premier League is now up to how many games?

2. In Liverpool’s loss at Brighton, Virgil van Dijk made his 265th Premier League appearance for the Reds, all of which have been starts. It is the outright most appearances for an outfield player at a club while starting all of them in the competition’s history, overtaking the 264 appearances for Sheffield Wednesday of which other central defender?

3. Raúl Jiménez holds the record for most penalties scored in the Premier League without missing one. After his successful spot-kick against Burnley on Saturday, how many has he converted?

4. Régis Le Bris is just the second Sunderland manager to win each of his first two league games against Newcastle United, after who did so during the 2013-14 season?

5. Manchester City’s win over Arsenal in the EFL Cup final was their 15th victory at the new Wembley Stadium as a neutral venue in all competitions since it opened in 2007. Which team has the second most with 14?

Scroll to the bottom for the answers.

Our question this week comes from John H, who asks: “I saw that Federico Valverde has 16 goal involvements in 2026. Is that the most or does anyone have more?”

Do you have a stat-based question you’d like Opta to answer in a future edition of SVQ? Email us at [email protected] or message us on X @OptaAnalyst with #AskOpta and we’ll pick the best one.

Answer:

Fede Valverde is having quite the time of it, scoring a hat-trick for Real Madrid against Manchester City in the Champions League last 16, and he also found the net in subsequent La Liga games against Elche and Atlético Madrid. He does indeed have 16 goal involvements in 2026 in all competitions (8 goals, 8 assists), including 10 in his last 10 games (7G 3A).

But no, he does not have the most in 2026.

When looking at all players from Europe’s top five leagues since 1 January, there are six players with more than 16 goal involvements in all competitions. Barcelona pair Fermín López (5G 12A) and Lamine Yamal (12G 5A) have 17 each, as does Bayern Munich’s Luis Díaz (9G 8A).

His Bayern teammates Michael Olise (6G 12A) and Harry Kane (18G 2A) have 18 and 20 respectively, but top of the pile is another Bundesliga player.

Stuttgart striker Deniz Undav has 22 goal involvements in 19 games in 2026, with 13 goals and nine assists to his name.

So, come on Federico. Get a move on, son.

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Here's some of the latest data-driven offerings you can find on our website:

1. After their 2-2 draw with Manchester United on Friday, Bournemouth’s unbeaten run in the Premier League is now up to how many games?

11 - (W4 D7), equaling their longest streak without defeat in the top-flight (also between November 2024 and January 2025)

2. In Liverpool’s loss at Brighton, Virgil van Dijk made his 265th Premier League appearance for the Reds, all of which have been starts. It is the outright most appearances for an outfield player at a club while starting all of them in the competition’s history, overtaking the 264 appearances for Sheffield Wednesday of which other central defender?

Des Walker

3. Raúl Jiménez holds the record for most penalties scored in the Premier League without missing one. After his successful spot-kick against Burnley on Saturday, how many has he converted?

14

4. Régis Le Bris is just the second Sunderland manager to win each of his first two league games against Newcastle United, after who did so during the 2013-14 season?

Gus Poyet

5. Manchester City’s win over Arsenal in the EFL Cup final was their 15th victory at the new Wembley Stadium as a neutral venue in all competitions since it opened in 2007. Which team has the second most with 14?

Chelsea

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Until next time,
Opta Analyst