Stat, Viz, Quiz 138: The Champions League Last 16 and the Opta Supercomputer

Real Madrid and Manchester City will meet (again), as will defending champions Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea in a repeat of last summer’s FIFA Club World Cup final. There’s also Newcastle United against Barcelona, Galatasaray vs Liverpool, Bayer Leverkusen against Arsenal and Atalanta vs Bayern Munich among others.

But which team is likeliest to go all the way and lift the big trophy in May? In this week’s SVQ, we’ll be asking the Opta supercomputer that very question.

One competing team who may be somewhat distracted are Tottenham, who have significantly more pressing matters domestically. Their home loss against Crystal Palace last week left them just a point above the relegation zone and further extended what has been a woeful run of form in 2026. Advanced warning to any Spurs fans reading, but we’ll also be looking at just how concerning things are for last season’s Europa League winners.

Our Ask Opta question this week queries the run-in for the Premier League title race, while our quiz is all about the FA Cup fifth round.

Let’s start with Europe’s finest…

We’re down to the last 16.

The Champions League really gets interesting from here, especially now that we know the potential paths each team could take between now and the final in Budapest in May.

And with that in mind, it means we can ask the Opta supercomputer to calculate each remaining team’s chances of going all the way and winning the Champions League in 2025-26.

Despite never having won a European Cup/Champions League before, Arsenal are the favourites to do so. The Gunners are in first place in the Premier League, and finished top of the league phase of the Champions League.

Mikel Arteta’s men were also handed, with the greatest of respect, a kind-looking path in the knockout stage. They face Bayer Leverkusen in the last 16, before a potential clash with Sporting CP or Bodø/Glimt in the quarter-finals. Arsenal win the Champions League in 26.7% of the latest simulations by the supercomputer.

Second favourites are Bayern Munich, who have looked almost unstoppable at home and in Europe this season, though Arsenal did beat them in the league phase. Vincent Kompany’s side won the Champions League in 16.4% of sims, ahead of Liverpool (11.4%) and Manchester City (11.1%)

Barcelona could face Arsenal in what would be a fascinating semi-final, and Hansi Flick’s men went all the way to win the tournament in 9.7% of sims, while Chelsea followed up their Club World Cup success last summer with a Champions League success in 6.4%.

PSG started motoring along at this stage last season on their way to winning their first Champions League, but are only seventh favourites with the supercomputer (4.3%) to do so again, while Newcastle pulled off what would undeniably be a shock victory in the final in 3.6%.

Real Madrid are the masters at winning this competition, having a record 15 European Cups/Champions Leagues to their name, but the supercomputer isn’t at all sure of them making it 16. Los Blancos only did so in 1.9% of sims, likely due to their difficult draw against City in the last 16, and potentially Bayern in the quarters.

You can read more about the latest projections on the Opta Analyst website.

Tottenham won the Champions League in 0.7% of simulations, but frankly, they have more concerning matters to focus on…

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It was a sorry night for any Tottenham fan.

After taking the lead in the 34th minute against Crystal Palace on Thursday via a Dominic Solanke goal, there was finally some optimism flowing at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

However, by half-time, any positive vibes had dissipated almost entirely.

Micky van de Ven was sent off for pulling Ismaïla Sarr down in the box, which also led to a penalty that Sarr scored. Jørgen Strand-Larsen then put Palace ahead, before Sarr made it 3-1 before the break, with both goals coming from delightful passes by Adam Wharton.

Some Spurs fans were seen leaving at half-time, and when the full-time whistle went after no further goals in the second half, the few people remaining in the stadium let their voices be heard.

It was the latest blow in a season to forget for Tottenham, who have failed to win any of their last 11 league games. It is the first time they have done so since October 1975 under Terry Neill (D7 L4).

Indeed, only in 1935 (first 15 games) have Spurs endured a longer winless run in league football to begin a calendar year than 2026 (11 so far).

They have also lost five successive Premier League matches for the first time since November 2004 (a run of six).

But perhaps worst of all, they have won just 33 points over their last 38 Premier League games, which gives them an average of 0.87 points per game in that time. That is Tottenham’s lowest average in their entire league history across a 38-game run (based on three points for a win), level with runs in 1912 and 1915.

It shows that this is more than just a bad run. This is Tottenham underperforming consistently for a significant period, and if they don’t find a way to start winning games soon, they will lose their place in the top flight for the first time since they were relegated in 1976-77.

Igor Tudor has his work cut out, but with a home game against relegation rivals Nottingham Forest coming up on 22 March, there is an ideal opportunity to not only get a win under their belt, but also drastically increase their survival chances.

Baby steps are needed, before it requires giant strides, and who knows? Come back from Madrid with a first-leg lead against Atlético this week and that could be the catalyst needed to restore much-needed confidence to the squad.

1. Mohamed Salah scored for Liverpool in both games against Wolves at Molineux last week in the Premier League and FA Cup. Who was the last Premier League player to score against the same opponent in two away games in four days in all competitions, doing so for Manchester United against Chelsea in October 2012?

2. After winning 4-2 at Wrexham after extra-time, Chelsea have scored 38 goals in 15 games in all competitions under Liam Rosenior. Who are the only Premier League team to have scored more goals since Rosenior’s first game in charge of the Blues?

3. Omar Marmoush has now scored seven goals in five appearances against Newcastle United in all competitions. What percentage of his goals for Manchester City have been against the Magpies? A) 20%, B) 35%, or C) 50%?

4. Port Vale reached the FA Cup quarter-finals for the first time since 1953-54, beating Sunderland at Vale Park on Sunday. It was the first time they’ve eliminated a Premier League opponent from the competition since the 1995-96 fourth round, when they beat who (after a replay)?

5. Leeds United’s win over Norwich City took them into the quarter-finals of the FA Cup for the first time since the 2002-03 season, when they were eliminated at that stage by which fellow Yorkshire side?

Scroll to the bottom for the answers.

Our question this week comes from Feysel Seman, who asks: “From the next Man City or Arsenal fixture, which team’s remaining matches are easiest in order to win the title?”

Do you have a stat-based question you’d like Opta to answer in a future edition of SVQ? Email us at [email protected] or message us on X @OptaAnalyst with #AskOpta and we’ll pick the best one.

Answer:

As the old cliché goes, there are no ‘easy’ games in the Premier League.

However, using Opta’s Global Power Rankings, we can at least look at which teams have opponents with lower or higher ratings.

Indeed, we did just that last week to see how each Premier League team’s fixture difficulty looks between now and the end of the 2025-26 season.

Looking at just Arsenal and Manchester City, though, it is the Gunners who have the slightly ‘easier’ run-in. Mikel Arteta’s men have played one more game than their title rivals, but looking at the average rating of each team, Arsenal’s upcoming opponents are rated at 90.4, with only four Premier League teams having a kinder set of fixtures.

By comparison, City’s final nine games are against teams with an average rating of 91.5. Only five sides have it tougher.

This doesn’t necessarily mean much, of course, especially in the nervous scenario of a title run-in. Arsenal recently drew at Wolves, but beat Chelsea, the latter of whom have a much higher rating (6th) than the former (54th).

City, meanwhile, won away at Liverpool (4th in the Power Rankings) a few weeks ago, but drew at home to Nottingham Forest (29th) in their most recent league game.

It promises to be a fascinating two and a half months anyway, especially when they face one another at the Etihad Stadium on 19 April.

Our Opta data hubs have detailed team and player stats, predictions, expected league tables and much more. Click/tap below to start your own data investigations.

Here's some of the latest data-driven offerings you can find on our website:

1. Mohamed Salah scored for Liverpool in both games against Wolves at Molineux last week in the Premier League and FA Cup. Who was the last Premier League player to score against the same opponent in two away games in four days in all competitions, doing so for Manchester United against Chelsea in October 2012?

Javier Hernández

2. After winning 4-2 at Wrexham after extra-time, Chelsea have scored 38 goals in 15 games in all competitions under Liam Rosenior. Who are the only Premier League team to have scored more goals since Rosenior’s first game in charge of the Blues?

Arsenal (39)

3. Omar Marmoush has now scored seven goals in five appearances against Newcastle United in all competitions. What percentage of his goals for Manchester City have been against the Magpies? A) 20%, B) 35%, or C) 50%?

C) 50% – 7 of 14

4. Port Vale reached the FA Cup quarter-finals for the first time since 1953-54, beating Sunderland at Vale Park on Sunday. It was the first time they’ve eliminated a Premier League opponent from the competition since the 1995-96 fourth round, when they beat who (after a replay)?

Everton

5. Leeds United’s win over Norwich City took them into the quarter-finals of the FA Cup for the first time since the 2002-03 season, when they were eliminated at that stage by which fellow Yorkshire side?

Sheffield United

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Until next time,
Opta Analyst