Stat, Viz, Quiz 135: Is New Manager Bounce a Thing?

Welcome Igor Tudor. Welcome (back) Vitor Pereira.  

The football world never stands still, and last week was no exception. Courtesy of Tottenham and Nottingham Forest, the seventh and eighth Premier League managers left their posts this season, and were replaced by shiny, new replacements.  

That got us thinking about the impact of changing manager mid-season. So, in SVQ this week, we’ve dug into whether the famous ‘new manager bounce’ is actually real. Do teams really get an immediate boost from making a change in the dugout?

We’ve also visualised 500 goals from one of the game’s finest ever strikers, and answered an Ask Opta question that should make a few promotion-chasing fans feel very uncomfortable. 

And as always, there’s a five-question quiz for you to get stuck into, so let’s get going.

New year, new manager. It’s already been a brutal start to 2026 for incumbent Premier League bosses, with four permanent managers dismissed before mid-February. The two most recent casualties came last week, with Tottenham parting ways with Thomas Frank and Nottingham Forest sacking Sean Dyche.  

With both sides flirting dangerously with the relegation zone, the hope is that making a change will lead to the holy grail: the proverbial ‘new manager bounce’.  

One need to only look at the two other clubs who’ve changed managers since the start of January to see the benefits of what could happen.

Both Chelsea and Manchester United have seen an immediate improvement in results under their new managers, with Liam Rosenior and Michael Carrick each averaging 2.6 points per game so far. That’s a significant upgrade on the points-per-game rate of their teams prior to their appointments (1.47 and 1.52, respectively). 

But can we say with any certainty that the new manager bounce is actually a thing? For every Carrick, there is an Ivan Juric at Southampton from 2024-25.

Well, since 2021-22, a total of 35 managers have been appointed mid-season in the Premier League (excluding caretakers) and taken charge of at least five league matches in that same campaign. Across their first five games – their theoretical ‘bounce window’ – they’ve averaged 1.27 points per game.  

Those same clubs were averaging just 0.90 points per game prior to their appointments. So new managers have seen about a 41% uplift in results.  

Of course, context matters. Teams usually change managers because results are already poor, so improvement is more likely than decline. But the numbers from recent seasons do suggest that clubs can expect to see a positive uptick in their team’s first five games after appointing a new manager.

Looking at the bounciest managers across the last six seasons, it’s new Forest boss Vitor Pereira who inspired the biggest turnaround as a new manager. Last season, Wolves were 19th with nine points from 16 games (0.56 PPG) before his arrival. Across his first five matches, they averaged 1.40 PPG (a 150% increase) and they eventually finished comfortably clear of the drop. 

Perhaps surprisingly, Dyche appears in seventh place on that list, turning things around impressively this season at Forest after taking over from Ange Postecoglou.

Forest’s hierarchy have clearly identified a solid choice for a rescue job, but did they already have a perfectly competent one there already? Time will tell.

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Harry Kane is a goalscoring phenomenon. Another two strikes for Bayern Munich against Werder Bremen on Saturday took him to a nice round 500 goals for club and country, making him the first English player to reach that mark in official professional matches.

The shot map below details how and where he’s scored each one. Exactly 100 of them (20%) have come from penalties, while – like all the finest strikers – he’s scored the majority of his goals (89.8% - 449/500) from inside the box.

Given he’s spent the bulk of his career in England, it’s not a surprise to know Kane has netted more goals for Tottenham (280) and in the Premier League (213) than anywhere else. Similarly, he’s scored more goals under Mauricio Pochettino (169) than any other manager.

Goals 499 and 500 took him to 126 goals overall for Bayern in all competitions, and 82 under Vincent Kompany.

Saturday’s game against Bremen was Kane’s 743th appearance for club and country. That makes him quicker to 500 goals than Cristiano Ronaldo (753 games), though not as fast as Lionel Messi, who reached the landmark in 632. 

This week’s quiz relates to goings on in the FA Cup fourth round. Answers at the bottom. 

1. Marc Guéhi scored his first goal for Manchester City in their 2-0 win over Salford City. He became the 19th different player to score a goal for City in all competitions this season. Only one Premier League side has had more different scorers this season – who?  

2. Dominik Szoboszlai scored the second in Liverpool’s 3-0 win over Brighton on Saturday, taking his total goal involvement tally to 17 this season (10 goals, 7 assists). Who’s the only Reds player to have been involved in more goals overall this season (19 – 15G, 4A)? 

3. Gabriel Martinelli is the first player to score 10+ goals in cup/European competitions in a single season for Arsenal since who scored 12 in 1994-95? 

4. Tammy Abraham netted his first goal for Aston Villa in over seven years. But who did he score his final goal of his first spell at the club against in May 2019?  

5. Arsenal’s 4-0 win over Wigan saw them reach the fifth round of the FA Cup for the first time since when?

Our question this week comes from Nick J, who asks: “Who’s had the longest unbroken run at the top of the Championship/League 1/League 2, only to fail to go up automatically? I’m looking at you here, Coventry City…?”

Do you have a stat-based question you’d like Opta to answer in a future edition of SVQ? Email us at [email protected] or message us on X @OptaAnalyst with #AskOpta and we’ll pick the best one.

Answer:

You’re right to direct this very pointed question towards Coventry City, Nick, despite them beating Middlesbrough last night. That win was massive for the Sky Blues as it sent them back to the top of the Championship by one point.  

That said, they had previously let a 10-point lead at the top of the Championship completely evaporate.

Just three months ago, Frank Lampard’s side were on 43 points ahead of Matchday 19, 10 ahead of Middlesbrough in second. Since that matchday, though, Coventry’s form has dramatically dipped, collecting just 19 points from 14 games (W5 D4 L5). Twelve other Championship clubs have won more over that period.

Middlesborough leapfrogged them into first place after MD30, putting an end to an unbroken spell of 114 days that Coventry spent top of the table between 18 October 2025 and 8 February 2026.

Since the Championship’s rebrand in 2004-05, if Coventry fail to finish in the top two, it would be the longest unbroken spell at the top of the Championship without securing automatic promotion. 

Watford (2007-08) currently hold that record. They spent 87 successive days top in 2007, yet ended up finishing sixth, and were beaten by Hull City in the play-off semi-finals.  

Lower down the pyramid, there have been bigger chokes, though. In League One, Nottingham Forest (2006-07) spent 126 successive days top, but finished fourth and were also knocked out in the play-off semi-finals.

In League Two, Walsall spent 119 straight days top between 7 December 2024 and 4 April 2025 last season but went on to finish fourth. They lost the play-off final to AFC Wimbledon.  

Overall, Coventry have spent 128 days top of the Championship this season. None of the 16 teams to have spent more days top of the table have failed to win automatic promotion to the Premier League. 

No pressure, then, Frank.

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1. Marc Guehi scored his first goal for Manchester City in their 2-0 win over Salford City. He became the 19th different player to score a goal for City in all competitions this season. Only one Premier League side has had more different scorers this season – who?  

Chelsea (20) 

2. Dominik Szoboszlai scored the second in Liverpool’s 3-0 win over Brighton on Saturday night, taking his total goal involvement tally to 17 this season (10 goals, 7 assists). Who’s the only Reds player to have been involved in more goals overall (19 – 15G, 4A)? 

Hugo Ekitiké 

3. Gabriel Martinelli is the first player to score 10+ goals in cup/European competitions in a single season for Arsenal since who scored 12 in 1994-95? 

Ian Wright 

4. Tammy Abraham netted his first goal for Aston Villa in over seven years. But who did he score his final goal of his first spell at the club against in May 2019?  

West Bromwich Albion in the Championship play-offs 

5. Arsenal’s 4-0 win over Wigan saw them reach the fifth round of the FA Cup for the first time since which campaign?  

2019-20 – they won the competition that year

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Until next time,
Opta Analyst