Stat, Viz, Quiz 124: Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup?

Instead of playing Mariah Carey and Wham, we’ve got Shakira’s Waka-Waka and Ant and Dec’s We’re on the Ball blaring through the Opta offices as we ice our Kylian Mbappé cake, hang Lionel Mess-letoe, and decorate our 2026 World Cup tree. But who will be top of that tree next summer? We’ve asked the Opta supercomputer to give us potential spoilers, and we’ll share those with you in this week’s SVQ.

Coming back to the present day (Christmas pun fully intended), Brentford secured another home win on Saturday, a victory in which Igor Thiago scored another penalty. We were curious about some of the Bees’ penalty numbers this season and we have a viz to show you how deadly Thiago has been from the spot.

There is a quiz to get stuck into as usual, while our Ask Opta question looks at teams who seem incapable of drawing games.

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Yes, the World Cup is another six-and-a-half months away, but as Nostradamus would attest to, you can never predict things too early… and as far as we know, he didn’t even have a supercomputer.

With the group-stage draw for next summer’s competition in the USA, Canada and Mexico taking place on Friday, we fired up the Opta supercomputer to see which countries are currently most fancied to go all the way and lift the most sought-after trophy in world football.

Of course, Argentina won it in Qatar in 2022 after arguably the best World Cup final in history, beating France on penalties following a 3-3 draw in which Kylian Mbappé scored a hat-trick but still somehow ended up on the losing side, having to watch Lionel Messi lift the trophy.

The supercomputer only makes Argentina fourth favourites to retain their title, though, with three European teams more heavily fancied.

Spain won the World Cup in 2010 at the peak of their powers, and they are currently favourites with the supercomputer to earn their second title in 2026.

Luis de la Fuente’s men were sumptuous on their way to winning Euro 2024, and La Roja win the World Cup in 17.0% of the supercomputer’s simulations. The fact Spain haven’t lost a competitive match since March 2023 (2-0 vs Scotland) likely plays a big part in them being made favourites as well.

Close behind are 2022 runners-up France (14.1%). Didier Deschamps’ side were unfortunate not to win three years ago, and he will be eager to make up for that before stepping down from his role as Les Bleus boss after the tournament. Deschamps has one final chance to become only the second coach to win multiple World Cups (after Vittorio Pozzo in 1934 and 1938).

Third favourites with the supercomputer are England (hears faint cheers and beer throwing from across the land). Thomas Tuchel’s Three Lions were as perfect as could reasonably be expected in qualifying, winning all eight of their games while not conceding a single goal. They add to their sole World Cup triumph of 1966 in 11.8% of simulations.

Argentina are fourth favourites (8.7%), ahead of Germany (7.1%) and Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal (6.6%). Brazil are always fancied, having won the World Cup a record five times, but they only make it six in 5.6% of sims.

Erling Haaland is quite the player, but he’ll have to go some to help Norway win their first ever World Cup, which they do in 2.3% of sims, while co-hosts Mexico manage it in 1.3%.

For a deeper rundown of the numbers ahead of Friday’s draw, head to the Opta Analyst site.

With the game at 0-0 heading into the final 10 minutes at the Gtech Community Stadium, you’d probably have got decent odds on it finishing 3-1.

That’s what happened, though, as Brentford beat Burnley on Saturday, with an increasingly familiar goalscorer helping them to claim the three points.

Igor Thiago scored his 10th and 11th Premier League goals of the season in the victory, the earliest in terms of matches (13) that a Brentford player has reached double figures in a single campaign in the competition. That is quite the accomplishment when you consider the Bees have boasted talents such as Ivan Toney, Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo in recent years.

The Brazilian has shown why the club were keen to bring him in to initially replace Toney in 2024, before injury largely disrupted his debut campaign. Now that he’s fit, though, he is making his mark.

It should probably be noted that five of Thiago’s goals have been from the penalty spot. That’s not to dismiss his form, he’s still scored six non-penalty goals and after all, penalties count too.

As you can see, he likes to keep his penalties low. In fact, there’s something eerily similar in the way he calmly strokes his penalties in, akin to the techniques used by Toney and Mbeumo, who both excelled from the spot also for Brentford. It could well be that this is how penalty taking is coached at the club.

It’s a handy thing to have such a reliable 12-yard slotter, even though Thiago did have a penalty saved against Brighton last month.

He gets plenty of opportunities, though. Brentford have been awarded seven penalties in their 13 Premier League games this season, the highest rate per game in a single season in the competition’s history (0.54 per game). They are already halfway to the record for most penalties taken in a Premier League season (Manchester United – 14 in 2019-20), and they’re almost halfway to the record for most penalties scored in a Premier League campaign (11) jointly held by Chelsea (2009-10 and 2023-24) and Crystal Palace (2004-05).

Brentford’s Dango Ouattara has been a key player in earning those spot-kicks. The former Bournemouth man has won a penalty in four of his last five Premier League games, with all four being scored by Thiago.

One record Thiago might have his eye on is the most penalties scored by a single player in a Premier League season, currently held by Andrew Johnson. The former Palace man scored 11 of his 13 penalties in the 2004-05 season. Remarkably, despite his efforts from the spot, the Eagles still went down that year.

That seems unlikely to be Brentford’s fate, though, especially if Ouattara keeps winning penalties and Thiago keeps scoring them.

With midweek Premier League fixtures taking place over the next three days, you best take our quiz quickly before any of the answers become out of date. Answers at the bottom.

1. Phil Foden’s opener for Manchester City against Leeds United was scored after just 59 seconds – the earliest goal for City in a Premier League game at the Etihad Stadium since September 2019, when who scored after 52 seconds against Watford?

2. Tyler Adams’ strike from 43.3 metres out for Bournemouth at Sunderland was the longest-range Premier League goal since who netted from 50.5m for Chelsea against Bournemouth in May 2024?

3. Brighton and Hove Albion attempted nine shots in the opening 20 minutes of their 2-0 win at Nottingham Forest, their most ever in that time period of a Premier League match. Who were the last team to attempt more in the opening 20 minutes of an away match in the competition, doing so against Fulham in March 2019?

4. Following their 1-0 win over Wolves, Aston Villa have the most victories of any side in the top four tiers of English football on home soil this calendar year in all competitions. How many? A) 16, B) 18), or C) 20?

5. Sunday’s 1-1 draw at Chelsea was the first time Arsenal had failed to win a Premier League game in which their opponents received a first-half red card since the opening weekend of the 2010-11 season against who?

Our question this week comes from Chad Raymond, who asks: “As of today, Liverpool have played 19 matches in a row in all comps without a draw. What is the record for matches ending all-or-nothing points-wise for a club in the top five European leagues?”

Do you have a stat-based question you’d like Opta to answer in a future edition of SVQ? Email us at [email protected] or message us on X @OptaAnalyst with #AskOpta and we’ll pick the best one.

Answer:

This question came in prior to the weekend, so that run has now extended to 20 after Liverpool’s 2-0 win at West Ham on Sunday.

The only game Arne Slot’s men have drawn this season was the Community Shield against Crystal Palace, before the Eagles won on penalties at Wembley in August. The Reds have since played 20 games in all competitions, winning 11 and losing nine.

Unfortunately, we don’t have the numbers for the history of Europe’s top five leagues, but in the Premier League era at least, Manchester City went 47 games without drawing in all competitions between December 2020 and September 2021 (W39 L8).

Bolton Wanderers have the next longest streak, going 33 games without a stalemate up to Boxing Day 2011, while Arsenal and Sheffield United both had 31-game runs that ended in October 2022 and August 2023 respectively.

The longest run without a draw to start a campaign was Bolton in 2011-12 (21 games), but as mentioned, the Community Shield counts as an official game, so Liverpool have technically already drawn a game this season.

Our Opta data hubs have detailed team and player stats, predictions, expected league tables and much more. Click/tap below to start your own data investigations.

Here's some of the latest data-driven offerings you can find on our website:

1. Phil Foden’s opener for Manchester City against Leeds United was scored after just 59 seconds – the earliest goal for City in a Premier League game at the Etihad Stadium since September 2019, when who scored after 52 seconds against Watford?

David Silva

2. Tyler Adams’ strike from 43.3 metres out for Bournemouth at Sunderland was the longest-range Premier League goal since who netted from 50.5m for Chelsea against Bournemouth in May 2024?

Moisés Caicedo

3. Brighton and Hove Albion attempted nine shots in the opening 20 minutes of their 2-0 win at Nottingham Forest, their most ever in that time period of a Premier League match. Who were the last team to attempt more in the opening 20 minutes of an away match in the competition, doing so against Fulham in March 2019?

Manchester City (12 shots)

4. Following their 1-0 win over Wolves, Aston Villa have the most victories of any side in the top four tiers of English football on home soil this calendar year in all competitions. How many? A) 16, B) 18), or C) 20?

C) 20 – Out of 25 home matches in 2025 (D4 L1)

5. Sunday’s 1-1 draw at Chelsea was the first time Arsenal had failed to win a Premier League game in which their opponents received a first-half red card since the opening weekend of the 2010-11 season against who?

Liverpool, a 1-1 draw with Joe Cole sent off for the Reds

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Until next time,
Opta Analyst