Stat, Viz, Quiz 120: Is Danny Welbeck England’s Best Striker Not Called Harry Kane?

Danny Welbeck is in tremendous shape, producing arguably his best form ever, and just weeks before his 35th birthday. In this week’s newsletter, we’ll take a look at just how well he’s doing.

Speaking of players in their thirties doing well, in fact borderline showing off at this point, Mohamed Salah reached yet another goalscoring milestone for Liverpool at the weekend, which we’ll tell you all about.

You are an inquisitive bunch, so we have TWO Ask Opta questions this week that we’ll endeavour to answer, while our quiz is a particularly tricky one. It might be even scarier than anything you experienced at Halloween.

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Danny Welbeck has always been somewhat of an enigma. Clearly supremely talented, but not always at the front and centre of minds when it comes to naming the Premier League’s best strikers.

The former Manchester United and Arsenal man has had a steady career, but despite his injury issues through much of his 20s, it was surprising to see that he only reached double figures for Premier League goals in a single campaign for the first time last season (10 goals in 30 games).

He seems likely to do so again in 2025-26, though, having already scored six goals in just 10 games. It is not just that he’s scoring at an impressive rate in games. Welbeck is doing so with ruthless efficiency in front of goal.

He didn’t score in any of his first five league games this season, and had a pretty bad day at the office in Brighton’s 2-0 loss at Everton on Matchday 2. Despite having five touches in the opposition box – his most in a single game this season – Welbeck had just two shots in that game, one of which was pretty much an open goal, while the other was a saved penalty.

In his last five games, though, things have been markedly different.

Welbeck has had 10 shots in those games, hitting the target seven times, and scoring six goals. He struck twice against Chelsea, twice against Newcastle United, once against Manchester United and once vs Leeds.

There has even been talk of him making the next England squad, which considering he turns 35 in just over three weeks’ time, would be quite something.

It wouldn’t be unwarranted, though. As we mentioned in this week’s Knee-Jerk Reactions article, apart from Harry Kane (12) and Welbeck (six), the only other English players with three or more goals in Europe’s top five leagues this season are Marseille’s Mason Greenwood (seven), Burnley’s Jaidon Anthony (four), West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen (three), Toulouse centre-back Charlie Cresswell (three) and Udinese’s former Aston Villa striker Keinan Davis (three).

That’s a decision for Thomas Tuchel, but either way, Welbeck’s renaissance has been quite a sight to see.

It has been a difficult time for Liverpool and Mohamed Salah, for a multitude of reasons.

However, the inevitable Egyptian has answered his critics with two goals in his last two Premier League games, and as happens so often for a man who scores like he has some sort of personal grievance with the back of every goal net, he has reached even more landmarks.

Salah’s goal in Liverpool’s much-needed 2-0 win over Aston Villa on Saturday meant that he went level with Wayne Rooney (Manchester United) for the most Premier League goal involvements for a single club (276).

Arguably even more impressive, though, was that he reached 250 goals in all competitions for Liverpool in 415 games, making him only the third player ever to do so in the storied history of the club, after Roger Hunt (285) and Ian Rush (346).

Salah’s most-scored-against opponent remains Manchester United (16 goals), despite him not finding the net in Liverpool’s recent home loss to Ruben Amorim’s side, while he has 14 against Tottenham and 13 apiece vs West Ham and Manchester City, the latter of whom Liverpool play at the Etihad Stadium next Sunday.

The team he has played most against without scoring is Paris Saint-Germain (four games), while he has never played against any other opponent more than twice without a goal.

The only current Premier League team Salah has not scored against is Sunderland, and that’s only because he has yet to play against them. He will have the chance to do so (availability pending) on 3 December at Anfield.

It was a difficult start to the season for Salah, but with Liverpool facing Real Madrid and Manchester City in the next week, it would be most welcome for Arne Slot if his main man gets anywhere near the kind of form that saw him record 57 goal involvements in all competitions last season.

Five questions vs your brain. Who will win? Answers at the bottom of the page.

1. Arsenal have won seven consecutive games without conceding in all competitions for just the second time in the club’s history, previously doing so between September and October 1987 (also a run of 7). Who was the last player to score against the Gunners?

2. Since the start of last season, Brentford have scored five own goals in the Premier League, the joint-most of any side, along with who?

3. Casemiro’s goal for Manchester United against Nottingham Forest was his 15th headed goal scored within Europe’s big five leagues. Since the start of the 2015-16 season, which former Lazio player is the only central midfielder with more?

4. Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 106 Premier League games at Anfield in which they’ve opened the scoring (W96 D10). Which team (in April 2017) were the last side to come back from 1-0 down and win there in the competition?

5. Name either of the only two English players who have been directly involved in more Premier League goals than Newcastle United’s Jacob Murphy (14) in 2025.

Our first question this week comes from Vladimir Stishenok, who asks: “I noticed that Aston Villa have been struggling with penalties for a few years now. Could you please tell me how they compare to other teams in Europe's top five leagues in terms of penalty conversion rate and number of penalties missed?”

Do you have a stat-based question you’d like Opta to answer in a future edition of SVQ? Email us at [email protected] or message us on X @OptaAnalyst with #AskOpta and we’ll pick the best one.

Answer:

* - Note that none of the following stats include penalty shootouts

Indeed, Aston Villa have struggled from the penalty spot more than others recently. Since the start of the 2024-25 season, they have taken 12 penalties in all competitions, scoring only six (50%).

Looking only at teams who have taken at least 10 penalties in that time, it is not quite the worst conversion rate in Europe’s top five leagues. Stuttgart have scored just four of their 11 penalties in all competitions (36.4%), while Freiburg have also only hit the back of the net with 50% of theirs (5 of 10).

As for most penalties missed since the start of last season, that would be Real Madrid (9), though in fairness they have also taken the most penalties of teams from Europe’s top five leagues in that time (28), so have a conversion rate of 67.9%.

Juventus are the only team to have taken at least 10 penalties in that time and have a 100% record, while Bayern Munich have scored the most, largely thanks to the ruthlessness of Harry Kane (21 of 23 – 91.3%).

So, essentially, we’re saying Villa should sign Kane and that should solve everything.

Our second question this week comes from Timo Schöning, who asks: “This weekend brought a very eventful three minutes during the match between Köln and Hamburg in the Bundesliga for Hamburg's [Immanuel] Pherai being brought into the match in minute 77, seeing yellow in 78 and being sent off with the second yellow in 79. Anyone in the big five leagues with a similarly impressive match historically?”

Answer:

Yes, that was quite something. We assume Hamburg boss Merlin Polzin gave Pherai slightly different instructions to that. It didn’t help them that Arsenal loanee Fábio Vieira was also sent off for the visitors just three minutes later, either. Funnily enough, that made him the fastest player in Bundesliga history to receive two red cards in the competition, doing so after only five appearances.

As for Pherai, it won’t be much of a surprise to learn that it was the quickest on record in the Bundesliga (since 2004-05) that a substitute has received two yellow cards, doing so in an almost-impressive time of just two minutes and 35 seconds.

The next fastest double-yellow collector this season in Europe’s top five leagues is Mallorca’s Antonio Sánchez, who was dismissed for two bookings last month against Athletic Club seven minutes and 55 seconds after coming on.

Looking back at Opta records from Europe’s top five leagues, Sulley Muntari has the unwanted record of the fastest red card for two yellows after emerging from the bench. The fourth official had barely put his board down when Muntari was shown a second yellow card a remarkably quick one minute and 15 seconds after coming on for Inter against Catania in March 2010.

Not too far behind is Jordan Ayew, whose second yellow after coming on as a sub for Marseille against Evian in February 2013 took just one minute and 51 seconds to arrive.

Arguably, both were still ‘impact subs’ to be fair.

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1. Arsenal have won seven consecutive games without conceding in all competitions for just the second time in the club’s history, previously doing so between September and October 1987 (also a run of 7). Who was the last player to score against the Gunners?

Nick Woltemade for Newcastle United on 28 September

2. Since the start of last season, Brentford have scored five own goals in the Premier League, the joint-most of any side, along with who?

Wolves

3. Casemiro’s goal for Manchester United against Nottingham Forest was his 15th headed goal scored within Europe’s big five leagues. Since the start of the 2015-16 season, which former Lazio player is the only central midfielder with more?

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (17)

4. Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 106 Premier League games at Anfield in which they’ve opened the scoring (W96 D10). Which team (in April 2017) were the last side to come back from 1-0 down and win there in the competition?

Crystal Palace

5. Name either of the only two English players who have been directly involved in more Premier League goals than Newcastle United’s Jacob Murphy (14) in 2025.

Jarrod Bowen (16) and Eberechi Eze (15)

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Until next time,
Opta Analyst